Afghanistan Down

It’s about noon on Sunday and the reports out of Kabul are far less than optimistic. And yet I just heard a D.C. policy wonk, a former State Department “expert” who helped devise our 20-year Afghanistan involvement, state that he was confident we would withdraw all our people safely. He had worked for several administrations, totally focused on Afghanistan so he must know what’s going on. But as he spoke we discover that the embassy has told Americans to “shelter in place” and not to go to the embassy. Why? Because the embassy has closed. The flag has been lowered. We also hear that the ambassador is “working” at the airport, probably with one foot on the steps of an aircraft. The president of Afghanistan, and his VP, have already fled the country so they can reap the benefits accrued in their foreign bank accounts. Our president is at Camp David for a little, five-day vacation, presumably toasting marshmallows as our citizens scramble to survive the onslaught. Even more troubling is what the Afghan people will face, particularly those who have aided our forces. Of course, the Afghan women face what can only be described as a horrendous future.

The Taliban are also releasing thousands of prisoners, former Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters, and arming them. The big tactical question seems to be: Can a relatively small US force hold the airport? And if not, what will happen? Do the Taliban really care about the possibility of US air strikes, especially since there are no battle lines? The Taliban have been very effective by integrating with the local population, so who and what would we attack from the air, especially with no ground support and direction? 

I actually heard another expert yesterday downplay the idea that the communist Chinese would cozy up to the Taliban. They have nothing in common, he told us, so the Chinese have no reason to help them. What he doesn’t seem to understand is the eastern concept that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” I expect the Chinese, the Iranians, and the Russians will all get involved after the fact, and soon. It’s what I would do were I in their shoes. After all, the Taliban will be the recipients of all kinds of US arms, no doubt some pretty hi-tech stuff. They’ll probably have an open auction in Kabul a few weeks from now.

I am not confident that all will go well tonight and tomorrow. We must pray for a safe withdrawal.