The occasional, often ill-considered thoughts of a Roman Catholic permanent deacon who is ever grateful to God for his existence. Despite the strangeness we encounter in this life, all the suffering we witness and endure, being is good, so good I am sometimes unable to contain my joy. Deo gratias!


Although I am an ordained deacon of the Catholic Church, the opinions expressed in this blog are my personal opinions. In offering these personal opinions I am not acting as a representative of the Church or any Church organization.

Showing posts with label experts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label experts. Show all posts

Thursday, April 1, 2021

Science, Technology, and God

We hear a lot today about science, largely because of the pandemic and the calls from every quarter to “follow the science.” I could be wrong but I suspect the word science has been used by the media more during the past year than in the previous five years combined. There are people who actually check such things because other people apparently pay them to do so. I suppose they could discover if I’m right about the frequent use of the word science but I probably couldn’t afford to pay them. So I’ll just take a very unscientific approach, assume I’m correct, and move on. 

This, by the way, is not unlike the approach taken by many today who claim to speak for the scientific community. “Listen to the experts,” they demand, “they’re a lot smarter than the rest of us.” But if we’ve discovered one thing this year, it’s that the scientific community is not of one mind when it comes to science. Despite the president’s claim that no respected medical professionals disagree with his pandemic team’s draconian approach, so far over 32,000 medical doctors and other health scientists from around the world have signed a petition (the Great Barrington Declaration) against lockdowns put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19, saying the measures cause irreparable damage. The declaration is co-authored by Dr. Martin Killdorff, a Harvard professor and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease; Dr. Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford University professor and epidemiologist with expertise in immunology; and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University Medical School professor and epidemiologist with expertise in infectious disease and vulnerable populations. I suppose the president doesn’t consider these folks respected medical professionals. Listen to the experts? Which ones?

As I mentioned in a previous post, regardless of the subject, the “science” is rarely, if ever, settled. Our understanding of the created universe changes constantly, and like the universe itself, our knowledge is always expanding. As for our knowledge of the coronavirus, it too has undergone much change. We know far more about this virus than we did a year ago, but there’s still much to learn. The problem, however, is that too many of our government officials, and even some of the experts themselves, seem unable or unwilling to apply this knowledge. Politicians just love to politicize everything, including science, because it provides a path to more power. Perhaps the most obvious example is the corrupt governor of New York who turned COVID-19 into a political and personal weapon that cost the lives of tens of thousands of elderly New Yorkers. But even scientists are susceptible because of one big, big reason: the money. Everyone tells us to “follow the science,” but in truth we would be better served to “follow the money.” For the new, improved Democrat Party, it’s all about power, and all that power is fueled by money.

Just consider what scientists — i.e. the “experts” — told us early last year and how their guidance has changed over time. “Don’t expect a vaccine for years,” we were told. Indeed, one expert actually claimed it wasn’t scientifically possible to develop and manufacture an effective vaccine in less than five years. But then President Trump kicked off Operation Warp Speed and within a year we had a selection of effective vaccines. Today tens of millions of Americans have been vaccinated and the numbers are growing by millions each day. This really bothers those who crave power and so they warn us against overconfidence, that things will likely get worse. 

Another example. Just a few weeks ago the ubiquitous but politically malleable Dr. Anthony Fauci told the nation that just because you’ve been vaccinated doesn’t mean you should relax your COVID protocols. Who knows? You might still spread the disease among your grandchildren. But then, on March 30, the director of the Center for Disease Control, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, stated publicly that "Our data from the CDC today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus or get sick.” She then added, “It's not just in the clinical trials, but it's also in real-world data." If this is true for someone like me who has been vaccinated — if I do not carry the virus and if I cannot get sick from the virus — then why do I still wear a mask? Is it just to make others feel better? Or maybe it’s to demonstrate the power of a government that’s been able to convince a majority of the population to do whatever they’re told. Perhaps it’s time for the people to reject politicized “science” and simply apply their common sense. 

On the same day the CDC director made her announcement, President Biden chastised governors who had relaxed their states’ mask and other protocols, even though these same states are experiencing significant decreases in COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Many have also demonstrated better “real world” results than states that have implemented the most stringent lock-downs. Yes, indeed, just “follow the science” once you’ve figured out exactly which science you’re supposed to follow.

But if want to see science run amok, turn to the People’s Republic of China, the official name of the country totally controlled by the Communist Party of China (CPC). Communist China is a country that takes its science seriously or, to be more accurate, it takes the science of other countries seriously through CPC-sponsored thievery. It steals everything and anything from anybody and everybody. And like all those on the political left, the CPC lies a lot. It has to because it celebrates policies of failure, policies it cannot defend with the truth...so it must lie.

Of one thing we can be certain, the CPC has no use for God. The CPC has expelled God not only from science but also from the very life of the Chinese people. They have removed Him from the law leaving behind the sham of a legal system with no moral foundation. Rejecting the limits of God’s natural and revealed law, their science and technology have become limitless, blind, and destructive. Today our technology leaders take much the same approach believing that because humanity has the capability to do something, it should do it. 

As for Communist China, the recent “investigation” into the origins of COVID-19, conducted by the Would Health Organization under the “guidance” of the CPC, demonstrated what we already suspected. The Chinese demanded and received veto power over the membership of the investigative team. They refused to share data from their Wuhan laboratory (the data that hadn’t already been destroyed) and controlled the team’s access. Their own researchers (the ones they hadn’t imprisoned for attempted whistle-blowing) were not allowed to speak with members of the team. There’s more, much more, but this is enough to prove to anyone but the most gullible that the virus not only originated in China but quite likely came from their Wuhan lab. Their guilt is as evident as their continued deception and lies. In the same way the CPC can justify its horrendous, genocidal treatment of the Uyghur people and other ethnic and religious minorities, and not fear reprisals from a world that has also forgotten God. 

We, too, are susceptible to these same societal sins when we accept the prevailing thinking that God is irrelevant to public life and try to construct a human community that excludes Him. Such attempts will fail because whenever a culture eliminates the “cult,” when it turns away from God, it self-destructs. And today, given the pace of change, such destruction will likely come quite quickly. 

You and I must continue to do our part but our battle is really against Satan, the father of lies. I accept that my small efforts will always be insufficient and have come to believe that the problem of the world’s agony must be left to our Creator. When we turn to the Old Testament we encounter many examples of a people who turned to their God in prayer and repentance when faced with threats to their very existence. Here’s a perfect example from the Book of Judith, at a time when the Israelites were threatened by a powerful army intent on destroying them:
“All the men of Israel cried to God with great fervor and humbled themselves...All the Israelite men, women, and children who lived in Jerusalem fell prostrate in front of the Temple and sprinkled ashes on their heads, spreading out their sackcloth before the Lord. The altar, too, they draped in sackcloth; and with one accord they cried out fervently to the God of Israel...The Lord heard their cry and saw their distress. The people continued fasting for many days throughout Judea and before the sanctuary of the Lord Almighty in Jerusalem” [Judith 4:9-13].

Perhaps today we, too, should devote ourselves to prayer and fasting, pleading with the Lord to save us from those who would lead the world away from Jesus Christ and His Church, and to save us also from ourselves. For faith is really the only alternative to the sinfulness of our age.



Friday, August 14, 2020

Beware of “Experts”

Have you noticed the confusion among the experts who lecture us daily on every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic? For example, when it comes to masks, over the past few months we’ve heard almost every permutation and combination: don’t wear masks; wear masks; don’t wear masks with vents; don't wear homemade cloth masks; any mask is good; wear masks everywhere; don’t wear masks outside...on and on it goes. We’ve encountered similar disagreement over the efficacy of such preventative medications as hydroxychloroquine and tafenoquine, among others. And listen to the experts on the availability of a vaccine. No vaccine can possibly be available until late 2021...okay, maybe early 2021...or maybe even the fall of 2020. 

“Expert” consensus on these and many other seemingly key issues remains elusive. This, of course, is to be expected, because the range of expertise of most experts is actually quite narrow. And when an issue arises that’s even slightly outside their narrow area of expertise...well, they guess. Or they rely on the latest "study" even though they can verify neither the accuracy nor the reliability of the study. We encounter more conflict among experts when they're faced with unknowns where standard approaches may or may not be effective. And so, subjectivity soon replaces objectivity, and expertise becomes tainted by ideology and politics. It all leads to even more confusion and division not only among the experts but also among folks like you and me. 

The media, since they rely almost completely on their expert sources for relevant information, are also plagued by confusion. Adding to their confusion is the inability of many experts to express technical concepts without using jargon that means little to the rest of the world. During my years as a naval officer and aviator, I had to deal with the media on numerous occasions. I made every effort to use proper naval and aviation terminology but to provide easily understandable explanations of  those terms, thinking this would lead to accurate reporting. Boy, was I wrong! The media didn't just get it wrong sometimes; they always got it wrong. As you might imagine, I believe very little of what I read, hear, or see in the media, and try to go straight to the original sources. 

The media, too, especially today's media, are horribly infected by ideological biases that tend to color their reporting. One cannot help but notice this in the media's coverage of the COVID-19 policies of two governors: Andrew Cuomo of New York and Ron De Santis of Florida. Florida which has a larger population than New York, has a per capita death rate 1/4 that of New York's. In fact, Florida seems to have handled the pandemic far better than New York in every measurable way. And yet the media praises Cuomo and savages De Santis. One suspects politics has infected the coverage.

Because I'm well into my "senior" years, as are many of those to whom I minister, I thought it might be meaningful to check out a fairly reliable source and see what the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has to say about the mortality rate among older COVID-19 patients. Here's some of the most relevant current data: 
  • Americans 85 or older, who represent about 3% of the country's population, account for one-third of COVID-19 deaths.
  • American 75 or older, who represent only 7% of our population, account for 59% of COVID-19 deaths.
  • Americans under the age of 55 make up 70% of our population but account for only 6% of the COVID-19 deaths.
  • COVID-19 deaths among Americans under the age of 15 is statistically irrelevant, far less than deaths from many other causes, including influenza.

Another interesting discovery was the CDC's description of COVID-19 deaths as "Deaths involving COVID-19" and not deaths caused by COVID-19. One suspects that this criterion might lead to a statistically higher death rate. Other issues, including many unreported mild cases among younger people, also drive the death rate higher. A larger numerator and a smaller denominator can have a significant effect on the reported data.

Nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths are linked to nursing homes -- another relevant issue for us older folks. Nursing home deaths were at an especially high rate in those states (NY, NJ, PA, and others) that forced elderly COVID-19 patients to return to nursing homes after having been diagnosed in hospitals -- a policy that led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. Yes, the "experts" can, on occasion, be very stupid.

For those of us who'd like to extend our long lives by a few more years, I suppose the best approach is simply to take good care of ourselves. I pay little attention to both experts and media, and try to rely more on the application of basic common sense. So far it seems to be working.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Pandemics and Politics

Life has been strange here in The Villages, certainly not what most folks expected when they moved to "Florida's Friendliest Hometown." But thanks to our governor, things are changing. For weeks Villagers were tucked away in their home, unable to do all those things "active seniors" enjoy. No movies, no concerts, no club  meetings. No pickle ball, no card games, no mahjong, no bingo or bunco. The pools were closed, as were all the recreation centers. OK, they could play some golf.. But what about all that free live evening entertainment at The Villages' three town squares, and the "happy hour" prices? Canceled too. Kaput! Gonzo!

Gone, too, were the frequent dinners at our restaurants and country clubs. Apparently many Villagers can afford to dine out daily. I know this because I've heard the complaints, over and over again. How did they cope with the withdrawal? Did they take advantage of take-out meals offered by some restaurants, or did they resort to frozen dinners from Publix or Winn-Dixie? Maybe a few actually renewed their culinary skills and cooked a few meals at home. But I suspect it just ain't the same as Olive Garden or Red Lobster. The bars, too, were closed and predictably sales at liquor stores went off the charts. Yes, indeed, it's been so hard for so many.

Of course, church attendance has been non-existent, and for us Catholics, the sacraments have been withdrawn. It's almost as if we've been placed under an ecclesial interdict. How did the fathers of the Second Vatican Council describe the Eucharist? "...the source and summit of the Christian life" [Lumen Gentium, 11]. And yet the faithful found themsevles deprived of this life-sustaining gift. Fortunately, the faithful are indeed faithful, and are an example to all of us, even the clergy. So many, thirsting for Word and Eucharist, have taken advantage of recorded and live-streamed Masses -- a sure sign of hope -- as they wait for a return of the sacraments.

Most people I speak with view this crisis rather narrowly, focusing solely on how it has affected them or their families. And this is certaily understandable, especially since most of us are physically separated from children and grandchildren. But there are really two demographic groups that deserve our attention: aging residents of what are euphemistically called "nursing homes" and working families with school-age children.

Of those who have died from COVID-19, the vast majority have been the elderly, particularly residents of nursing homes or other assisted living facilities. We've all heard of the tragic decisions by the authorities in New York, Pennsylvania, and other states to send hospitalized infected seniors back to their assisted living facilities rather than isolating them. City and state authorities in NY certainly had the capability to isolate since President Trump had sent the hospital ship, USNS Comfort, to New York City and also had the U. S. Army turn the huge Javits Center into a hospital. Both were rarely used, despite the seemingly panicked pleas by the governor and mayor for more facilities. Instead, the authorities demanded that when hospitals released infected elderly patients, the nursing homes must re-admit them. The result? Thousands died.

Let's look now at the data -- nationwide data direct from the Center for Disease Control. It covers the three-month period, February 1 through May 2:
  • 80% of those whose deaths were directly related to COVID-19 were over the age of 65 (50,819 of 63,469 total deaths).
  • Of these 63,469 deaths, only 13 deaths were of children under the age of 15. In fact, during that same period, and in that same age group, 107 children died from pneumonia and 85 from influenza.
  • For young people of high school and collage age (15 to 24), 66 died from COVID-19 related illness, again out of 63,469 total deaths. During that same period 143 died from pneumonia and 41 from influenza.
Just think about these numbers. It would seem that all along our emphasis should have focused largely on the elderly. I don't say this because I am in this age group. No, from the very beginning we were told the elderly would be the most vulnerable. And guess what? They are. But apparently some governors consider us old folks expendable. Instead of working to keep us safe, they turned their attention to the economy and proceeded to undermine it. They focused instead on destroying the livelihood of working families by shutting down the businesses that employ them, particularly the smaller businesses that lack political clout. They closed the schools, although children are the least susceptible demographic when it comes to COVID-19. More children and young adults have died from pneumonia and influenza during this same period.

I'm not minimizing the death of a single child, but we've never shut down schools because of pneumonia or influenza, just as we didn't do so because of polio when I was a child. Am I wrong about this? I don't know. Perhaps. But what I do know is that too often we nod with unthinking acceptance at the decisions made by politicians, who are driven largely by political considerations and the opinions of well-chosen "experts." But what is an expert but someone with expertise in a narrow field of knowledge? For example, what does an epidemiologist, especially one employed by a government bureaucracy, know about the economy and employment and the cost of doing business? Not much! And yet we seem to accept their wide-ranging recommendations almost blindly, without considering the long-term effects on our nation as a whole. Only now have we begun to question what they know about their own field when applied to demographics. Their pandemic "models" have been remarkably and consistently inaccurate, largely because they tend to ignore or discount the human element; that is, the cumulative effect of the micro-decisions made by people like you and me.

Too many experts and politicians simply ignore the impact of their recommendations and decisions on what is probably the most important element of our society: the working family. Forced to leave their jobs, deprived of their income, and forced, too, to home school their children, they are plagued not by the coronavirus but by worry about their family's future. And isn't it strange that these same governors consider education (along with religion) the most non-essential of all activities?

Finally, isn't it interesting that the most "liberal" of governors are also the most authoritarian, and seem to thrive on the elixir of power? I won't beat this drum again here since I did so in a recent post: Power and Precedent. 

That's enough. It's late. I'm tired. Good night.