Beware of “Experts”

Have you noticed the confusion among the experts who lecture us daily on every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic? For example, when it comes to masks, over the past few months we’ve heard almost every permutation and combination: don’t wear masks; wear masks; don’t wear masks with vents; don't wear homemade cloth masks; any mask is good; wear masks everywhere; don’t wear masks outside...on and on it goes. We’ve encountered similar disagreement over the efficacy of such preventative medications as hydroxychloroquine and tafenoquine, among others. And listen to the experts on the availability of a vaccine. No vaccine can possibly be available until late 2021...okay, maybe early 2021...or maybe even the fall of 2020. 

“Expert” consensus on these and many other seemingly key issues remains elusive. This, of course, is to be expected, because the range of expertise of most experts is actually quite narrow. And when an issue arises that’s even slightly outside their narrow area of expertise...well, they guess. Or they rely on the latest "study" even though they can verify neither the accuracy nor the reliability of the study. We encounter more conflict among experts when they're faced with unknowns where standard approaches may or may not be effective. And so, subjectivity soon replaces objectivity, and expertise becomes tainted by ideology and politics. It all leads to even more confusion and division not only among the experts but also among folks like you and me. 

The media, since they rely almost completely on their expert sources for relevant information, are also plagued by confusion. Adding to their confusion is the inability of many experts to express technical concepts without using jargon that means little to the rest of the world. During my years as a naval officer and aviator, I had to deal with the media on numerous occasions. I made every effort to use proper naval and aviation terminology but to provide easily understandable explanations of  those terms, thinking this would lead to accurate reporting. Boy, was I wrong! The media didn't just get it wrong sometimes; they always got it wrong. As you might imagine, I believe very little of what I read, hear, or see in the media, and try to go straight to the original sources. 

The media, too, especially today's media, are horribly infected by ideological biases that tend to color their reporting. One cannot help but notice this in the media's coverage of the COVID-19 policies of two governors: Andrew Cuomo of New York and Ron De Santis of Florida. Florida which has a larger population than New York, has a per capita death rate 1/4 that of New York's. In fact, Florida seems to have handled the pandemic far better than New York in every measurable way. And yet the media praises Cuomo and savages De Santis. One suspects politics has infected the coverage.

Because I'm well into my "senior" years, as are many of those to whom I minister, I thought it might be meaningful to check out a fairly reliable source and see what the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has to say about the mortality rate among older COVID-19 patients. Here's some of the most relevant current data: 

• Americans 85 or older, who represent about 3% of the country's population, account for one-third of COVID-19 deaths.

• American 75 or older, who represent only 7% of our population, account for 59% of COVID-19 deaths.

• Americans under the age of 55 make up 70% of our population but account for only 6% of the COVID-19 deaths.

• COVID-19 deaths among Americans under the age of 15 is statistically irrelevant, far less than deaths from many other causes, including influenza.

Another interesting discovery was the CDC's description of COVID-19 deaths as "Deaths involving COVID-19" and not deaths caused by COVID-19. One suspects that this criterion might lead to a statistically higher death rate. Other issues, including many unreported mild cases among younger people, also drive the death rate higher. A larger numerator and a smaller denominator can have a significant effect on the reported data.

Nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths are linked to nursing homes -- another relevant issue for us older folks. Nursing home deaths were at an especially high rate in those states (NY, NJ, PA, and others) that forced elderly COVID-19 patients to return to nursing homes after having been diagnosed in hospitals -- a policy that led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. Yes, the "experts" can, on occasion, be very stupid.

For those of us who'd like to extend our long lives by a few more years, I suppose the best approach is simply to take good care of ourselves. I pay little attention to both experts and media, and try to rely more on the application of basic common sense. So far it seems to be working.

What Are They Saying?

I keep hearing people say some very odd things, sometimes stupid things. I'm sure many don't realize how strange their words sound, but maybe if they actually thought about what they're saying, they'd stop saying it. For example:

"We're all in this together." 

No, we're not. The protected classes certainly aren't. These include the multi-millionaires and billionaires, the Wall Street denizens, most professionals, tenured academics, government bureaucrats at all levels, media talking heads, and of course, members of Congress, state legislators, mayors, and city council members...and so many more. All of these well-protected people are pretty much isolated from the more dire effects of the coronavirus panic...at least its short-term effects. These are also the people who make most of the decisions that affect the hard-working citizens of the USA.

Another group includes the non-working poor; that is, those who receive regular welfare payments, food stamps, Medicaid, and all the rest. They, too, have been largely unaffected by the pandemic, at least financially. Their checks have continued and they've even received a nice big bonus. I know this because I've spoken privately with a lot of these folks, my soup-kitchen friends, and most are very content with the current situation. Interestingly, several told me they are receiving even more meals and other food and household products since the pandemic, largely because charitable contributions and governmental assistance have increased dramatically. Yes, there are some exceptions, but they are just that, exceptions.

 
Another group includes me; that is, those of us who are retired and receive monthly checks from the U.S. Treasury. My income isn't very high, but it certainly didn't drop. Indeed, it experienced a nice rise when my bank account received that government bonus check. Other than experiencing a little "cabin fever," most of us have weathered the pandemic fairly well.

There are a few other unaffected groups, but let's turn our attention to those who have been hammered most by the coronavirus debacle: the working poor and the middle class. Also included here are the entrepreneurs, the folks who create jobs and keep our economy going. Unfortunately, these are the people who, disproportionately, have lost their jobs and income and may well lose their businesses. 

The leftist totalitarians, who demonstrate an insatiable desire to run every aspect of our lives, consider businesses, especially small businesses, so very non-essential. Big businesses are generous with campaign contributions, but most small businesses reinvest their profits where they will do the most good: in their businesses and employees. The fact that small businesses employ 50% of American workers means nothing. The left, you see, wants everyone to work for the government; that is, they want socialism. If you're a barber in Michigan, if you own a bar in Chicago, a gym in New Jersey, a restaurant in Manhattan, or a gun shop in LA, and if you decide to reopen your business, you can expect special treatment from the dictator wannabes who lead these states. How about a hefty fine or a cozy bunk in one of their jails? After all, they've made room for you because they've freed so many child molesters, rapists, and other criminals. Lifelong politicians don't have a clue. Remember that when you cast your next ballot.

Then there's this one:

"Join us in supporting America's essential workers."

I heard these words during a commercial aired by some company that wanted us all to know they provided material, moral, and emotional support to healthcare workers, fire and police, and other key "essential" workers. The commercial included a rapid-fire series of images of the kinds of people who fit their narrow criteria. It was one of those "pat ourselves on the back" commercials by a company that has furloughed a bunch of their own "non-essential" employees.

My problem relates to the essential vs. non-essential designation. It really boils down to decisions made by politicians or government bureaucrats who likely have never worked in the private sector or had to invest sweat equity in a business they owned. We see the result when power-hungry governors and mayors fine or order the arrest of owners of small businesses who actually believe the Constitution was written to protect them from tyrants. 

These same un-Constitutional decisions are too often influenced by political considerations. For example, why is a Walmart employee essential, but a local deli worker non-essential? Why is a Planned Parenthood abortionist essential, but an orthopedic surgeon who performs knee, shoulder, or hip replacements non-essential? Why is a news reporter more essential than a priest, minister, or rabbi? After all they're all protected by the First Amendment. And why is a member of Congress, who really does very little, essential, but a barber, who provides a needed service, non-essential? Believe me, my barber, a wonderful man named Salty, has done far more for me than my congressman. When it comes to the economy, pandemic or not, every job that feeds families and keeps people employed is essential...period!

And how about these words...

"You are violating the governor's orders..."

These were spoken by a police officer and addressed to the owner of a gym in Bellmahr, NJ. 

Colonel Patrick Callahan, New Jersey State Police Superintendent, stated that in addition to a summons for violating Governor Phil Murphy's stay-at-home order, the owners of Atilis Gym were charged with making a public nuisance. Gym owners Ian Smith and Frank Trumbetti had stated that they intended to remain open. They took every necessary precaution to protect their members from the coronavirus. They followed all the guidelines to ensure social distancing, as well as proper cleanliness and disinfecting of equipment. One of the owners correctly stated that it was primarily a Constitutional issue, that the governor's executive orders violated the Constitutional rights of American citizens. They had broken no laws. 

At this point I intend to write something that will upset many of my readers, but I really don't care, because it is the truth.

The gym owners, because they are willing to sacrifice their livelihood and their freedom, to place it all on the line in support of their Constitutional rights, are men of courage. As someone who wore the uniform of the United States Navy for several decades, I swore an oath "to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic..." I also swore to obey the orders of those "appointed over me." But if an order violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice -- i.e., if it were illegal -- I could not legally obey it. The New Jersey State Police also take an oath and it too requires that they defend the Constitution of the United States; indeed, that's the very first element of their oath.

Although the governor has shown himself to be a power-hungry little dictator, the people of New Jersey can handle him through the electoral process, assuming they are wise enough to discern what's he's doing to their freedoms. My real problem, though, is with the police. The police, according to the NJ State Police General Order #1, may arrest or issue a summons only when someone has violated the law. The governor's orders, however, are not laws. Laws can only be enacted by the state legislature. Why, then, are the police acting as they are? I can think of only two reasons: (1) They are simply ignorant and don't realize what does and does not constitute a law. In other words, they do not understand the U. S. or New Jersey Constitutions and the rights of citizens; or (2) They fear the consequences of disobedience, should they fail to summons or arrest those who violate the governor's illegal order. In other words, they don't want to be fired or otherwise punished by the governor.

The upshot? The gym owners have shown themselves to be courageous men with a deep respect for our Constitutional freedoms. And the police who are involved in this injustice? Watching some of the interactions between police and those asserting their freedoms, one senses the officers are somewhat embarrassed to challenge these law-abiding citizens. One also hopes they are merely ignorant, because I'd hate to think of them as cowardly.

I have always had tremendous respect for our law enforcement officers at every level, local state, and federal. But when they encounter corruption at the highest levels, they are faced with a choice. They can go along, hoping it will go away. Of course, it won't, not until it is openly confronted. They can refuse to take part and either be fired or perhaps allowed to resign. Or they can fight it using whatever means available to them. Sadly, most seem to choose the first option.

Many of these governors are currently being sued for taking such draconian, un-Constitutional actions. As these suits move through the courts I expect the U.S. Supreme Court to rule against the governors. I simply can't imagine the justices agreeing to set aside the Bill of Rights because of a virus.

"You can't save everyone. You're gonna lose people. That's life."

No, Governor Cuomo, that's death. 

New York's governor, Andrew "Liveshot" Cuomo, uttered these words when questioned about his order demanding nursing homes accept patients infected by COVID-19. This order, which the average 10-year-old would realize was idiotic, resulted in the unnecessary deaths of thousands of New York's senior citizens, those most vulnerable to the effects of this virus. I actually take this decision by the governor personally because, at the age of 75, I'm right there in the mix with all these elderly people who are no longer with us. 

Why did this happen? The governor told us: "You're gonna lose people." And if "you're gonna lose people," I suppose you might as well lose those who count the least. This is how today's leftists think. Sanctity of life means absolutely nothing to them. Not only are some jobs more essential than others, so too are some lives. 

The unborn, for example, are essentially meaningless. They simply don't count. For some on the left, who strive to limit the effects of humanity on the planet, the best approach is to stop humans from being born. If contraception doesn't do the job, just snuff 'em out in the womb. The aged, too, have become unnecessary. Not only do they no longer contribute much to society, but it also costs far too much to keep them alive. The numbers tell the story. They're living so much longer now. Social security, government pensions, Medicare...it all adds up. Just send a bunch of infected folks into those nursing homes and let nature run its course.

Of course, creating a culture of death that supports abortion and euthanasia also helps undermine the left's most powerful enemy, organized religion, especially those faiths that actually cherish God's gift of life. And while I'm on the subject, thank you, Mr. President, for encouraging the states to open up our churches. It's about time. Let's hope they listen.

Some church leaders have been courageously defying governors' orders that blatantly violate the First Amendment of the Constitution of the United States, the amendment that bars government from prohibiting the free exercise of religion. Here's a recent article addressing the issue: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/religious-leaders-weigh-defiance-if-theyre-asked-to-close-church-doors-again

And kudos to the Catholic Bishops of Minnesota who decided to allow parishes to celebrate Mass with parishoners present despite the order banning services by Governor Tim Walz. Their action obviously put the pressure on the governor who then rescinded his order. See the story: https://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/after-minnesota-bishops-plan-to-defy-mass-restrictions-governor-eases-rules

Pandemics and Politics

Life has been strange here in The Villages, certainly not what most folks expected when they moved to "Florida's Friendliest Hometown." But thanks to our governor, things are changing. For weeks Villagers were tucked away in their home, unable to do all those things "active seniors" enjoy. No movies, no concerts, no club  meetings. No pickle ball, no card games, no mahjong, no bingo or bunco. The pools were closed, as were all the recreation centers. OK, they could play some golf.. But what about all that free live evening entertainment at The Villages' three town squares, and the "happy hour" prices? Canceled too. Kaput! Gonzo!

Gone, too, were the frequent dinners at our restaurants and country clubs. Apparently many Villagers can afford to dine out daily. I know this because I've heard the complaints, over and over again. How did they cope with the withdrawal? Did they take advantage of take-out meals offered by some restaurants, or did they resort to frozen dinners from Publix or Winn-Dixie? Maybe a few actually renewed their culinary skills and cooked a few meals at home. But I suspect it just ain't the same as Olive Garden or Red Lobster. The bars, too, were closed and predictably sales at liquor stores went off the charts. Yes, indeed, it's been so hard for so many.

Of course, church attendance has been non-existent, and for us Catholics, the sacraments have been withdrawn. It's almost as if we've been placed under an ecclesial interdict. How did the fathers of the Second Vatican Council describe the Eucharist? "...the source and summit of the Christian life" [Lumen Gentium, 11]. And yet the faithful found themsevles deprived of this life-sustaining gift. Fortunately, the faithful are indeed faithful, and are an example to all of us, even the clergy. So many, thirsting for Word and Eucharist, have taken advantage of recorded and live-streamed Masses -- a sure sign of hope -- as they wait for a return of the sacraments.

Most people I speak with view this crisis rather narrowly, focusing solely on how it has affected them or their families. And this is certaily understandable, especially since most of us are physically separated from children and grandchildren. But there are really two demographic groups that deserve our attention: aging residents of what are euphemistically called "nursing homes" and working families with school-age children.

Of those who have died from COVID-19, the vast majority have been the elderly, particularly residents of nursing homes or other assisted living facilities. We've all heard of the tragic decisions by the authorities in New York, Pennsylvania, and other states to send hospitalized infected seniors back to their assisted living facilities rather than isolating them. City and state authorities in NY certainly had the capability to isolate since President Trump had sent the hospital ship, USNS Comfort, to New York City and also had the U. S. Army turn the huge Javits Center into a hospital. Both were rarely used, despite the seemingly panicked pleas by the governor and mayor for more facilities. Instead, the authorities demanded that when hospitals released infected elderly patients, the nursing homes must re-admit them. The result? Thousands died.

Let's look now at the data -- nationwide data direct from the Center for Disease Control. It covers the three-month period, February 1 through May 2:

• 80% of those whose deaths were directly related to COVID-19 were over the age of 65 (50,819 of 63,469 total deaths).

• Of these 63,469 deaths, only 13 deaths were of children under the age of 15. In fact, during that same period, and in that same age group, 107 children died from pneumonia and 85 from influenza.

• For young people of high school and collage age (15 to 24), 66 died from COVID-19 related illness, again out of 63,469 total deaths. During that same period 143 died from pneumonia and 41 from influenza.

Just think about these numbers. It would seem that all along our emphasis should have focused largely on the elderly. I don't say this because I am in this age group. No, from the very beginning we were told the elderly would be the most vulnerable. And guess what? They are. But apparently some governors consider us old folks expendable. Instead of working to keep us safe, they turned their attention to the economy and proceeded to undermine it. They focused instead on destroying the livelihood of working families by shutting down the businesses that employ them, particularly the smaller businesses that lack political clout. They closed the schools, although children are the least susceptible demographic when it comes to COVID-19. More children and young adults have died from pneumonia and influenza during this same period.

I'm not minimizing the death of a single child, but we've never shut down schools because of pneumonia or influenza, just as we didn't do so because of polio when I was a child. Am I wrong about this? I don't know. Perhaps. But what I do know is that too often we nod with unthinking acceptance at the decisions made by politicians, who are driven largely by political considerations and the opinions of well-chosen "experts." But what is an expert but someone with expertise in a narrow field of knowledge? For example, what does an epidemiologist, especially one employed by a government bureaucracy, know about the economy and employment and the cost of doing business? Not much! And yet we seem to accept their wide-ranging recommendations almost blindly, without considering the long-term effects on our nation as a whole. Only now have we begun to question what they know about their own field when applied to demographics. Their pandemic "models" have been remarkably and consistently inaccurate, largely because they tend to ignore or discount the human element; that is, the cumulative effect of the micro-decisions made by people like you and me.

Too many experts and politicians simply ignore the impact of their recommendations and decisions on what is probably the most important element of our society: the working family. Forced to leave their jobs, deprived of their income, and forced, too, to home school their children, they are plagued not by the coronavirus but by worry about their family's future. And isn't it strange that these same governors consider education (along with religion) the most non-essential of all activities?

Finally, isn't it interesting that the most "liberal" of governors are also the most authoritarian, and seem to thrive on the elixir of power? I won't beat this drum again here since I did so in a recent post: Power and Precedent. 

That's enough. It's late. I'm tired. Good night.