Beware of “Experts”

Have you noticed the confusion among the experts who lecture us daily on every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic? For example, when it comes to masks, over the past few months we’ve heard almost every permutation and combination: don’t wear masks; wear masks; don’t wear masks with vents; don't wear homemade cloth masks; any mask is good; wear masks everywhere; don’t wear masks outside...on and on it goes. We’ve encountered similar disagreement over the efficacy of such preventative medications as hydroxychloroquine and tafenoquine, among others. And listen to the experts on the availability of a vaccine. No vaccine can possibly be available until late 2021...okay, maybe early 2021...or maybe even the fall of 2020. 

“Expert” consensus on these and many other seemingly key issues remains elusive. This, of course, is to be expected, because the range of expertise of most experts is actually quite narrow. And when an issue arises that’s even slightly outside their narrow area of expertise...well, they guess. Or they rely on the latest "study" even though they can verify neither the accuracy nor the reliability of the study. We encounter more conflict among experts when they're faced with unknowns where standard approaches may or may not be effective. And so, subjectivity soon replaces objectivity, and expertise becomes tainted by ideology and politics. It all leads to even more confusion and division not only among the experts but also among folks like you and me. 

The media, since they rely almost completely on their expert sources for relevant information, are also plagued by confusion. Adding to their confusion is the inability of many experts to express technical concepts without using jargon that means little to the rest of the world. During my years as a naval officer and aviator, I had to deal with the media on numerous occasions. I made every effort to use proper naval and aviation terminology but to provide easily understandable explanations of  those terms, thinking this would lead to accurate reporting. Boy, was I wrong! The media didn't just get it wrong sometimes; they always got it wrong. As you might imagine, I believe very little of what I read, hear, or see in the media, and try to go straight to the original sources. 

The media, too, especially today's media, are horribly infected by ideological biases that tend to color their reporting. One cannot help but notice this in the media's coverage of the COVID-19 policies of two governors: Andrew Cuomo of New York and Ron De Santis of Florida. Florida which has a larger population than New York, has a per capita death rate 1/4 that of New York's. In fact, Florida seems to have handled the pandemic far better than New York in every measurable way. And yet the media praises Cuomo and savages De Santis. One suspects politics has infected the coverage.

Because I'm well into my "senior" years, as are many of those to whom I minister, I thought it might be meaningful to check out a fairly reliable source and see what the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has to say about the mortality rate among older COVID-19 patients. Here's some of the most relevant current data: 

• Americans 85 or older, who represent about 3% of the country's population, account for one-third of COVID-19 deaths.

• American 75 or older, who represent only 7% of our population, account for 59% of COVID-19 deaths.

• Americans under the age of 55 make up 70% of our population but account for only 6% of the COVID-19 deaths.

• COVID-19 deaths among Americans under the age of 15 is statistically irrelevant, far less than deaths from many other causes, including influenza.

Another interesting discovery was the CDC's description of COVID-19 deaths as "Deaths involving COVID-19" and not deaths caused by COVID-19. One suspects that this criterion might lead to a statistically higher death rate. Other issues, including many unreported mild cases among younger people, also drive the death rate higher. A larger numerator and a smaller denominator can have a significant effect on the reported data.

Nearly half of all COVID-19 deaths are linked to nursing homes -- another relevant issue for us older folks. Nursing home deaths were at an especially high rate in those states (NY, NJ, PA, and others) that forced elderly COVID-19 patients to return to nursing homes after having been diagnosed in hospitals -- a policy that led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. Yes, the "experts" can, on occasion, be very stupid.

For those of us who'd like to extend our long lives by a few more years, I suppose the best approach is simply to take good care of ourselves. I pay little attention to both experts and media, and try to rely more on the application of basic common sense. So far it seems to be working.